A Lasting Ceasefire Between Israel and the Palestinian Territories? We have Seen This Pattern – The Consequence Was Further Violence
So, what time period do we find ourselves? A US president, after months of implicit backing, has ultimately stepped in to halt an offensive by Israeli forces that has turned large areas of a city in the Middle East to rubble, leaving many thousands killed and prompting international condemnation.
The campaign has followed a series of strikes on Israel. Currently, under pressure from the White House, the Israeli prime minister, a conservative politician with a talent for popular speech and an intense sense of historic Zionist mission, has approved a truce.
Historical Parallels
The year is not the current year, but 1982. The city is not the Gaza Strip, but Beirut. The American president is President Reagan, not the current administration.
We find significant distinctions between the situation in the Lebanese nation over four years past and what has happened in Gaza in the past two years. The militant assault of last year, which resulted in 1,200 and included numerous taken hostage, bears little comparison with the comparatively limited actions of the PLO in the time prior to the Israeli incursion of the Lebanese nation.
Remarkable Resemblances
Some are uncanny. The US leader eventually picked up the phone the counterpart, telling him that events in Beirut was "a catastrophe" and saying the relations between their states could be seriously harmed if the conflict persisted.
During that period, comparable to present circumstances, the fighting unfolded in real time on millions of screens. Many correspondents entered Beirut to document for the initial instance an regional battle without media restrictions by the combatants.
Results and Outcomes
The events subsequent to the conversation from the US president and the truce in Beirut is instructive. The Palestinian organization, its divisions and representatives were dispersed across multiple countries and a dozen countries.
The US administration then withdrew international forces – a violation of the agreement with Arafat. Bashir Gemayel, Lebanon's freshly appointed leader and Israel's preferred proxy, was killed by Syrian intelligence.
Middle Eastern Changes
The same was true across the broader area. By the late seventies, the increasingly non-religious and forward-thinking concepts that had looked to deliver the potential of a changed reality in the Arab and Islamic worlds years before were undermined.
The consequences of this were quickly apparent, in short order
Across the region, the Israeli state and the America now confronted adversaries who were significantly more stubborn, dangerous and capable than the secular movements and independence advocates of the past.
International Reaction
Among Western nations, the results of this were unexpected. During the that decade, international experts and officials had attempted to comprehend what led to armed fundamentalism.
Afterward, in the early 1980s, this ceased. National figures in the US, the Britain and other nations were lost interest in "fundamental sources" of violence.
Current Similarities
Recently, sources suggest that current leadership told Israeli counterparts that the country could not oppose international consensus and recognized territorial ambitions for a independent nation.
This too was an parallel of historical precedent. In the wake of the military incursion of the neighboring country, past government told the Israeli government that the strength of its armed forces alone could not "establish enduring settlement" and acknowledged "proper claims of the Palestinian people."
However a American-sponsored comprehensive agreement intended to answer those concerns stalled completely. From exile, Palestinian leadership watched impotently.
Global attention in the Middle East diminished. The state opposed compromises. Later, there was the first intifada, and the creation of additional militant groups.
- The patterns of history provide thought-provoking perspectives for current resolution attempts
- Permanent settlements require addressing fundamental problems rather than brief halts
- Area politics continue to develop in complex and often unpredictable ways