Everyday Murders in the nation Decline 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Statistics

The typical figure of everyday homicides per month in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh administrative data. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have advised that murder data could fail to indicate enhanced countrywide safety.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 murders a day in November compared with nearly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September. This data was provided by the head of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that have been recorded over these past months is very significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, explaining that last month the smallest number of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Intense drug cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s highly military operations to combat the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than the US. However, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an apparently more pronounced decline in killings this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President declared: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The main pillars of the President's safety plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Increased collaboration between various authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

But, security analysts cautioned that using homicide statistics to assess the situation of pacification was flawed. This is especially true in light of the rise in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be positive information if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide numbers and say: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not valid for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the desire to correctly identify and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of daily killings was also an issue because it may mask days when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean makes surges of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for serious crimes, per government data. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

But despite these efforts, Mexico is still grappling with high bloodshed, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to build a story of security. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s highly problematic,” Vargas said.