Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process
Multiple members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.
